Mortgage Rates: The national average for a 30 year fixed, conventional mortgage fell slightly from 4.6% to 4.52% however so far in September, rates have spiked back up to a 7 year high of 4.65% as the volatility in the bond market returned.
Closed Sales: The Twin Cities had 6,655 residential closing in August. That is up 6% from July, flat year over year and up 15% from 5 years ago.
New Listings: 7,804 new residential listings hit the market last month which is up 2% month over month, up 8% year over year and up 11% from 5 years ago. This is the first time since 2012 that new listings have increased month over month in August which is a minor but interesting deviation from what has been a strong 6 year trend.
Homes for Sale: August ended with a home inventory level of 12,492 active listings. That is up 3% month over month, down 4% year over year and down 28% from 5 years ago. Inventory is still relatively low but notably this is the first time that the home inventory level has risen in the month of August since August of 2013 which is another minor but interesting deviation from what has been a strong 5 year trend.
Median Home Price: The median home price in August was $268,000. That is unchanged month over month, up 6% year over year and up 29% from 5 years ago.
Pending Sales: Pending sales are a leading indicator for future closings and have been predictably in decline since May. In August, 5,684 residential units came under contract which is down 5% month over month, down 3% year over year and up 9% from 5 years ago.
Month's Supply: The entire housing market is decelerating this time of year but by far the best performing bracket right now is the starter home bracket. The move up and luxury brackets have decelerated more so. Below are the current month's supply of inventory by market segment:
- Under $300K: 1.7 Months
- $300K - $500K: 3.1 Months
- $500K - $1 million: 5.9 Months
- Over $1 million: 11.8 Months
Trend Deviations: It will be interesting to see if the trend deviations in listings and home inventory from August turn out to be leading indicators of a macro trend shift in housing or if last month August was just a fluke in that regard.
This concludes my insight for September. Please don’t hesitate to connect with me any time to discuss the market conditions in your particular neighborhood and thank you for taking the time to watch this video.
By Nick Leyendecker, Founder, Co-CEO and REALTOR®